Yearender: U.S. economy slows in 2019, thorny road ahead

Source: Xinhua| 2019-12-25 08:37:40|Editor: huaxia
Video PlayerClose

Colorful child's riding toys are displayed at the 116th Annual North American International Toy Fair at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in New York, the United States, Feb. 16, 2019. (Xinhua/Wang Ying)

The U.S. economy has maintained a moderate pace of growth, but it faces a thorny path ahead.

WASHINGTON, Dec. 24 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. economy, supported by robust consumer spending and a strong job market, has maintained a moderate pace of growth as 2019 draws to a close. While worries about an immediate recession have abated, its economy still shows signs of slowing down.

With business investment falling and manufacturing sector contracting, the U.S. economic recovery has hit a lot of bumps over the past few months. It faces a thorny path ahead amid lingering trade uncertainty and a synchronized global slowdown.

MIXED PICTURE

U.S. economic growth in the third quarter expanded at an annual rate of 2.1 percent, which is slightly up from the 2 percent in the second quarter and marks a sharp deceleration from the 3.1 percent in the first quarter, according to data from the U.S. Commerce Department.

A panel of professional forecasters recently surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) anticipated the U.S. Gross Domestic Product growth would slow from 2.9 percent in 2018 to 2.3 percent this year.

After the central bank's latest policy meeting earlier this month, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell described the mixed picture in his words: "Household spending has been strong, supported by a healthy job market, rising incomes, and solid consumer confidence. In contrast, business investment and exports remain weak, and manufacturing output has declined over the past year."

Personal consumption expenditures, which account for roughly 70 percent of U.S. economic output, have seen robust growth during the first three quarters -- rising by 1.1 percent, 4.6 percent, and 3.2 percent respectively -- partly soothing fears over the health of the world's largest economy.

The unemployment rate, which has remained below 4 percent since the beginning of the year, dropped slightly to 3.5 percent in November, again hitting the lowest in nearly five decades. Job gains have averaged 205,000 from September to November.

Despite resilient consumer spending and a strong labor market, business investment has declined for two straight quarters -- dropping by 1 percent in the second quarter and 2.3 percent in the third -- acting as a drag on the overall economy.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector, meanwhile, contracted for a fourth consecutive month in November, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The Purchasing Managers' Index registered 47.8 percent in September, the lowest in a decade.

TRADE UNCERTAINTY

The Fed chairman, along with many economists, has repeatedly cited trade tensions as one of the factors that have been weighing on the U.S. economy.

Noting that the economy faced some "important challenges" from weaker global growth and trade uncertainty over the past year, Powell said the central bank adjusted the stance of monetary policy to "cushion" the economy from these developments and "provide some insurance against the associated risks."

The Fed has lowered interest rates three times since July, amid growing uncertainty stemming from trade tensions, weakness in global growth and muted inflation pressures. These policy adjustments put the current federal funds rate target range at 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference in Washington D.C., the United States, on Dec. 11, 2019. (Xinhua/Sarah Silbiger)

The Business Roundtable, an association of CEOs for some of the largest companies in the United States, recently said its index of the CEOs' economic outlook in the fourth quarter dropped to 76.7, which remains below the historical average and marks the seventh consecutive quarterly decline.

"CEOs are justified in their caution about the state of the U.S. economy. While we have achieved a competitive tax environment, uncertainty surrounding trade policy and slowing global growth are creating headwinds for business," said Joshua Bolten, president and CEO of the Business Roundtable.

According to the NABE survey released earlier this month, trade policy continues to be the "most widely cited" dominant downside risk to the U.S. economy through 2020, with half of respondents citing it as the "greatest" downside risk.

U.S.-initiated trade tensions have taken a toll on the global economy. The World Trade Organization recently said that world merchandise trade volumes are expected to rise by only 1.2 percent in 2019, substantially slower than the 2.6 percent growth forecast in April.

In its latest World Economic Outlook report released in October, the International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast for 2019 to 3 percent, warning that growth continues to be weakened by rising trade barriers and growing geopolitical tensions.

THORNY ROAD AHEAD

The U.S. economy is expected to further slow down next year against the backdrop of persistent trade policy uncertainty and a labor market that could be losing momentum, as well as a precarious global outlook.

Official data showed that job gains have averaged 180,000 per month so far in 2019, compared with an average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018, indicating that the overall level of hiring has been slowing down over the past few months. Meanwhile, the pace of payroll growth has remained weak.

According to the CNBC Global CFO Council survey for the fourth quarter, 60 percent of chief financial officers expect their company's head count to decrease over the next 12 months.

The NABE survey panelists believed the U.S. economy would slow to 1.8 percent in 2020. "The consensus forecast calls for a pickup in housing, but slower growth in business investment and consumer spending, along with larger deficits in trade and the federal budget," said NABE President Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG.

The federal budget deficit, which ballooned rapidly during the Trump administration, has drawn concern from many. Powell, the Fed chairman, recently stressed the urgency for the U.S. Congress to address the issue, noting that there would otherwise be less fiscal space to support the economy in a downturn.

On the trade front, uncertainty has been the only certainty. Despite progress with Canada, Mexico and China, the United States has proposed tariffs on French products in retaliation for digital service tax, and its Boeing-Airbus aircraft subsidy dispute with the European Union has been escalating.

A worker milks a cow at a dairy farm run by Kelly D. Cunningham in rural Cass County of the U.S. state of Iowa, Oct. 16, 2019. (Xinhua/Wang Ying)

"The administration's trade policies have left little room to maneuver," Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, a major accounting firm, wrote in an analysis.

"Either the president backs off his campaign promises, holds the line on tariffs and the economy slows. Or, he risks a recession by doubling down on trade wars and heightening uncertainty," Swonk wrote.

KEY WORDS:
EXPLORE XINHUANET
010020070750000000000000011102121386560471
乐发彩票中心 大发app 凤凰彩票app 乐发iv游戏平台 凤凰彩票大厅 乐发彩票 乐发彩票app下载 大发彩票 乐发v官网 乐发lll 乐发lv入口 乐发iv首页 乐发ll登录 凤凰彩票大厅 乐发官网 乐发ii下载入口 乐发ll 乐发v平台 乐发v官网 乐发lll 乐发lv入口 乐发iv首页 乐发ll登录 乐发lv 乐发lll安装 乐发lv 乐发登录入口 乐发iv游戏平台 凤凰彩票登录 网信彩票 彩神 彩神彩票官方网站 彩神彩票官网首页 彩神官方app下载安卓版 凤凰彩票登录 彩神v3 凤凰彩票app下载 彩神官方app下载安卓版 网信快三 一分快3 快三彩票购彩平台 凤凰彩票官方 快3官网 网信彩票 快3app 网信彩票平台 百姓彩票平台 网信平台官网 快3app下载 百姓彩票 每日彩票 快3app 百姓彩票 每日彩票 快3app 百姓彩票平台 幸运5分彩快3 快3彩票app下载 百姓彩票网站网址 大发10分PK10 快3下载 网信彩票平台 网信平台官网 快3彩票官网app 凤凰彩票官方 彩神彩票 大发10分PK10 彩神v3 大发彩票app下载 百姓彩票网站网址 彩神购彩平台 每日彩票 官方正规快三彩票平台 彩神彩票购彩平台 百姓彩票 凤凰彩票购彩平台 凤凰彩票app下载 彩神官方app下载安卓版 网信快三 一分快3 快三彩票购彩平台 凤凰彩票官方 彩神彩票 大发10分PK10 彩神v3 凤凰彩票登录 乐发lv 乐发∨Il 百姓彩票网站网址 乐发彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 乐发lll安装 百姓彩票网站网址 凤凰彩票app下载 大发10分PK10 乐发2 乐发app 凤凰彩票 大发彩票app 乐发登录入口 乐发ll登录 乐发v官网 乐发官网 大发彩票app下载 凤凰彩票购彩平台 彩神彩票 官方正规快三彩票平台 一分快3 百姓彩票网站网址 凤凰彩票app下载 大发10分PK10 乐发2 乐发app 凤凰彩票 大发彩票app 乐发登录入口 乐发ll登录 乐发v官网 乐发官网 大发彩票app下载 凤凰彩票购彩平台 彩神彩票 官方正规快三彩票平台 1分快三平台 百姓彩票平台 凤凰彩票登录 幸运5分彩快3 彩神 乐发彩票 乐发 大发彩票 乐发iv游戏平台 乐发lv 乐发lll 乐发ii下载入口 乐发彩票官方网站 凤凰彩票官方网站 凤凰快3 彩神彩票官网首页 1分快三平台 百姓彩票平台 凤凰彩票登录 幸运5分彩快3 彩神 乐发彩票 乐发 大发彩票 乐发iv游戏平台 乐发lv 凤凰彩票app 乐发app 网信彩票平台 网信彩票平台 乐发iv游戏平台 凤凰彩票app 乐发lv 乐发彩票app下载 凤凰彩票app 网信彩票平台 乐发彩票app下载 乐发lv 乐发app 大发彩票安卓下载 大发彩票安卓下载 大发彩票 乐发彩票app下载 网信彩票平台 乐发iv游戏平台 彩神彩票 乐发彩票中心 极速快3彩票平台 人人快三凤凰 大发彩票app 大发彩票大全 乐发彩票 彩神彩票官方网站 乐发app 酷天堂彩票平台 凤凰彩票app下载 凤凰彩票大厅 凤凰彩票app 极速快3彩票平台 凤凰彩票 凤凰快3 乐发ll官网 乐发彩票中心 正规快三送彩金平台 凤凰彩票官方 乐发ll 乐发 网信彩票 彩神彩票 彩神彩票官方网站 大发彩票app 网信彩票用户 百姓快三 百姓彩票平台 乐发lv 乐发彩票app下载 彩信平台 网信彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 乐发∨Il 人人快三凤凰 凤凰彩票 凤凰快3 乐发ll官网 乐发彩票中心 正规快三送彩金平台 凤凰彩票官方 乐发ll 乐发 网信彩票 彩神彩票 彩神彩票官方网站 人人快三凤凰 乐发彩票 彩神彩票 乐发iv游戏平台 乐发彩票 大发彩票中心 凤凰彩票登录 凤凰彩票app 彩神彩票 大发彩票 乐发ll 大发彩票app 凤凰快3 凤凰彩票 彩神彩票 乐发ll 凤凰彩票 乐发lll 凤凰彩票大厅 网信彩票 彩神彩票 乐发lv 快盈彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 盈彩网投资平台 大发官网 一分时时彩 乐发lv 快3平台 凤凰快3 乐发ll 全民彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 百姓彩票 乐发彩票 大发彩票 极速快3 乐发app 大发官网 乐发lll 快3平台 凤凰快3 乐发ll 全民彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 百姓彩票 乐发彩票 大发彩票 极速快3 乐发app 彩神iv 大发彩票app 大小单双平台 一分pk10 乐发lv 快盈彩票 乐发官网 快彩彩票 百姓彩票 凤凰彩票大厅 网信彩票 乐发彩票中心 网信快3 乐发 彩神xl 三分快3 大发彩票 大发官网 乐发lll 快3平台 凤凰快3 乐发ll 全民彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 百姓彩票 乐发彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 大发彩票 乐发 分分快3 彩神vl 55世纪 55世纪 凤凰快3 乐发彩票 乐发lv welcome凤凰彩票 乐发ll 1分快3 彩神 彩神ll 1分快3官网 1分快3的平台 welcome凤凰彩票 三分快3 彩神x 彩神vl 凤凰彩票 彩神xl 大发彩票 凤凰彩票大厅 乐发官网 乐发ll 乐发lll 乐发lv 大发彩票app 大发彩票 乐发 乐发彩票 乐发彩票中心 凤凰快3 乐发彩票 彩神xl 腾讯快3 大发彩票 彩神xl 大发彩票 乐发彩票 大发彩票app 快3平台 乐发 1分快3 乐发彩票 彩神x 凤凰快3 彩神xl 彩吧助手 大发彩票app 快3平台 大发排列3 彩神iv 彩神vl 乐发IV 彩神x 一分pk10 大发排列3 乐发lv 快3彩票 乐发app下载 三分快3 快三平台助手 乐发彩票ll 彩神iv 乐发lll下载 盈彩网投资平台 乐发Ⅲ 一分pk10 凤凰彩票 乐发Vll 大发官网 乐发ll 大发彩票 乐发1 凤凰快3 彩神vl 乐发lx 百姓彩票 乐发VI 彩神x 乐发IV 极速快3 乐发 凤凰快3 网信快3 乐发lv 快3彩票 乐发app下载 三分快3 快三平台助手 乐发彩票ll 彩神iv 乐发lll下载 盈彩网投资平台 乐发Ⅲ 凤凰彩票大厅 乐发lv 乐发lv 乐发lv 凤凰彩票 大发彩票 大发彩票 凤凰彩票 乐发lv 凤凰彩票 凤凰彩票 乐发lv 乐发ll 凤凰彩票app下载 凤凰彩票 凤凰彩票 乐发lv 乐发ll 凤凰彩票app下载 凤凰彩票 凤凰彩票 乐发lv 彩神x 乐发 乐发ll 极速快3 乐发lv 乐发彩票中心 快3彩票 凤凰彩票大厅 彩神x 凤凰彩票app 分分快3 网信彩票 网盟彩票 凤凰彩票 百姓彩票 乐发 快彩彩票 乐发彩票 快3平台 百姓彩票 大小单双平台 凤凰快3 彩神xl 一分pk10 乐发lv 三分快3 大发彩票 乐发彩票 快3平台 百姓彩票 大小单双平台 凤凰快3 彩神xl 一分pk10 乐发lv 三分快3 大发彩票 极速快3 乐发ll 网信彩票 乐发lv 全民彩票 凤凰彩票app下载 快盈彩票 大发彩票app 大发官网 凤凰彩票 彩神iv 大发彩票 网信快3 凤凰彩票 百姓彩票